Zahid Butt

School-based interventions to mitigate the impact of the tripledemic: Simulation-based evidence to guide high-impact public health and environmental measures

During the most recent respiratory virus season, the concurrent circulation of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2 — referred to as the tripledemic — caused extraordinary strain on health care systems. This was particularly apparent within pediatric populations, due to the disproportionate impact of severe RSV disease in infants. Thus, it is imperative that decision-makers have a better understanding of which public health and environmental viral mitigation measures (for example, masking, vaccination) may have the greatest impact on reducing the burden of the ongoing tripledemic.

Due to the institutional nature of schools and the role children are surmised to play in the transmission of all three viruses, understanding the impact various school-based measures may offer to mitigate viral transmission is of particular interest to public health, health care, and education decision-makers. Myriad observational and modelling studies have attempted to ascertain the degree to which specific population- and school-based interventions taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as mask mandates and school closures, contributed to the broader influenza and RSV activity. They have reached mixed conclusions regarding the utility of specific interventions, partly owing to methodological limitations.

Mathematical modeling provides a feasible and practical alternative to these methods as the trade-offs and impacts of multiple interventions can be simultaneously evaluated, and both the direct and indirect impacts on transmission and disease dynamics can be estimated. The proposed project aims to understand the impact of public health and environmental measures on COVID-19, influenza, and RSV, including the impact on each individual pathogen as well as the overall tripledemic.

This project is funded through a grant from the Public Health Agency of Canada.